Strategic Foresight for Scenario Planning in Emergency Management
This solution addresses lack of foresight to support resilience in USA (Federal Emergency Management Agency/FEMA) for local communities
Problem Description
This feature seeks to spark future-thinking and discussion about key trends, and what they may signal for America in the coming years. It uses a tool called scenario planning, a common method used by organizations like the U.S. National Intelligence Council. By considering a broad range of alternative possibilities for the future, scenario planning helps account for the unpredictability of real life. Instead of simply assuming that there’s one “most likely” future, we should critically assess how an uncertain future may play out in many different ways. We do this by analyzing a wide spectrum of drivers like technology and socio-economic factors, drivers that may fundamentally change the way the world works. Understanding what our future needs will be requires us to stretch our imaginations and explore the underlying forces of change—seeking to be more prepared, regardless of how the future unfolds.Building Blocks
Story
The world is changing in ways that may significantly impact the emergency management community. Thinking more broadly and over a longer timeframe helps FEMA and its partners understand trends that may influence our mission space. This type of analysis, known as "strategic foresight," enables us to better understand and anticipate risks and take advantage of opportunities in FEMA strategy, resource planning, and doctrine.
Recognizing emergency management as a whole community effort, FEMA's Office of Policy and Program Analysis engages many partners to explore the future of our common mission. Under strategic foresight launched in 2010, FEMA has worked with emergency management professionals across the nation, to share resources, learn from, and highlight innovative efforts from the community to anticipate and address future challenges and opportunities.
Resources
Organisations Involved
Solution Stage
One of the 7 stages of an innovation. Learn more
| STAGE | SPECIALIST SKILLS REQUIRED | EXAMPLE ACTIVITIES | RISK LEVEL AND HANDLING | FINANCE REQUIRED | KINDS OF EVIDENCE GENERATED | GOAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Making the case4 | Business development and evaluation |
|
MEDIUM |
MEDIUM | A stronger case with cost and benefit projections developed through practical trials and experiments, involving potential users | Clarity about what warrants implementation and funding |